solid state battery industry report

Solid state battery industry report

Basic concepts of solid state battery industry

Solid state battery concept

Solid state batteries are lithium-ion batteries with solid electrolytes. Compared with traditional lithium batteries, the most prominent advantage of solid state battery is safety. Solid state batteries are non-flammable, high-temperature resistant, non-corrosive and non-volatile.

Solid electrolyte is the core of solid state batteries. Electrolyte materials largely determine the performance parameters of solid state lithium battery, such as power density, cycle stability, safety performance, high and low temperature performance and service life.

Solid-state lithium-ion batteries work the same as conventional lithium-ion batteries. The main difference between the two is that the battery electrolyte of solid state battery is solid, which means that the site of lithium ion migration has been transferred to the solid electrolyte.

With the continuous upgrading of cathode materials, solid electrolyte can make a better fit, which is conducive to improving the energy density of lithium battery systems.

In addition, the insulation of solid electrolyte makes it a good barrier between the cathode and anode of the battery, avoiding short circuit caused by contact between the cathode and anode and acting as a separator

Classification of solid state battery

According to the choice of electrolyte material, solid state battery can be divided into three electrolyte systems: polymer, oxide and sulfide. Among them, polymer electrolyte belongs to organic electrolyte, oxide and sulfide belong to inorganic ceramic electrolyte.

Classification of solid state batteries

According to the different anode and cathode materials, solid state battery can also be divided into solid lithium ion battery (using the current lithium ion battery material system, such as graphite + silicon carbon anode, three cathode, etc.) and solid lithium metal battery (lithium metal as the negative electrode).

Solid state battery Industry chain

Solid state battery industry chain is roughly similar to liquid lithium battery. The main difference between the two is that the anode materials and electrolytes are different in the middle and downstream of the battery, and the cathode is almost the same.

Upstream cathode materials:

Similar to traditional lithium-ion batteries, the cathode material of solid-state batteries generally adopts composite electrodes, including solid electrolyte and conductive agent in addition to the active substance of the electrode, which plays the role of transporting ions and electrons in the electrode. According to the cathode material classification, there are mainly ternary, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt and lithium manganese.

Similar to traditional lithium-ion batteries, the cathode material of solid-state batteries generally adopts composite electrodes, including solid electro

In 2019, China’s ternary material shipments accounted for the highest proportion of 47.5%; The second is lithium iron phosphate, accounting for 21.8%. Ternary materials with energy density advantages are expected to further replace the lithium iron phosphate market.

At present, Chinese cathode materials are still in a state of full competition, and the concentration degree may increase in the future. The top three companies in terms of shipments of cathode materials in China are Xiamen Tungsten, Tianjin BAMo and Germany Nano, with market share of 11%, 7% and 7% respectively. From the perspective of price trend, the overall price of ternary materials in China shows a downward trend.

The main terminal demand is not driven enough, and the superimposed raw material capacity release transmission affects the market price of ternary materials.

Upstream anode materials:

Solid state battery anode material is mainly concentrated in lithium metal anode materials, carbon anode materials and the oxide anode materials, including lithium metal anode materials because of its high capacity and low potential advantages to become one of the most main anode materials in all solid state lithium-ion batteries.

Using lithium metal anode is expected to enhance 40-50% of the energy density. At present, most of the world’s lithium production capacity is concentrated in China, accounting for about 70%.

Major global lithium manufacturers include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium and Livent, which accounted for 79% of the global capacity in 2018. Ganfeng Lithium is the largest lithium metal producer in the world, with a design capacity of 1600 tons of lithium metal in 2018 and an actual output of 1519.44 tons.

The linkage effect of lithium price and lithium carbonate is obvious. The lower price of raw materials makes downstream manufacturers put pressure on upstream lithium metal manufacturers to reduce prices.

Upstream electrolytes:

All-solid-state lithium battery uses solid-state electrolyte instead of traditional organic liquid electrolyte, which is expected to fundamentally solve the problem of lithium-ion battery safety . It is an ideal chemical power source for electric vehicles and large-scale energy storage. The three electrolyte systems of solid state battery have their own advantages and disadvantages. Among them, European and American companies prefer oxide and polymer systems, while Japanese and Korean companies are more focused on solving sulfide systems.

Downstream consumer battery field:

For now, solid-state batteries are still being developed. In the application field, it is expected to take the lead in playing the advantages of safety and flexibility, and be applied in the field of microbatteries with little cost sensitivity, such as implantable medical devices, wireless sensors, etc.

After the technological progress, gradually penetrate to high-end consumer battery. In terms of traditional consumer electronic products, such as mobile phones, computers, digital cameras and other products have been in a relatively mature market in China.

With the progress of science and technology and the arrival of the wave of intelligence, intelligent wearable devices are developing rapidly. This growth is driven by product forms such as smartwatches, continuous glucose monitoring systems, wireless headsets and new technologies such as AR/VR. As the upstream of wearable devices, the demand for solid state battery will expand with the growth of wearable devices.

Downstream power battery field:

With the maturity of solid state battery products, it will continue to penetrate in the future and is expected to be applied in the field of power battery. Benefiting from preferential policies, China’s new energy vehicle market has been developing rapidly since 2014. 

In 2020, despite a sharp decline in the global auto market due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.07 million units, and the development trend is still good. Among them, China’s new energy vehicles sold 1.367 million units in 2020, up 10.9% year on year, and have exceeded 1 million units for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for six consecutive years.

In 2020, despite a sharp decline in the global auto market due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3.0

Downstream energy storage battery field:

All solid state battery is recognized as one of the emerging technology directions which is expected to break through the bottleneck of electrochemical energy storage technology and meet the future development demand. In terms of electrochemical energy storage, lithium batteries account for 80% of electrochemical energy storage.

Combined with China’s guidelines for energy development, the demand for electrochemical energy storage is expected to grow rapidly in the fields of user side and grid connection of renewable energy, and the development prospect of solid state battery is bright.

Backup power is another important application of electrochemical energy storage. With the construction of 5G base stations being vigorously promoted, the demand for backup power is also expected to see rapid growth. By May 2020, China had more than 200,000 5G base stations in operation, with more than 10,000 new 5G base stations being added every week.

Cost structure:

The overall cost of solid state battery is mainly composed of battery material cost and battery production cost, among which material cost occupies most share. Material cost includes cathode anode, diaphragm (if necessary), electrolyte, collector, shell, etc., while production cost includes plant design/workshop, energy and personnel/production process

Development status of solid state battery industry

Policy environment of solid state battery industry

There are few relevant policies directly targeting the solid state battery industry in China. The policies that have a greater impact on the solid state battery industry mainly focus on “promoting the development of lithium battery industry” and “promoting the upgrade of new energy vehicle power batteries”.

Relevant policies indirectly affect the solid state battery industry by formulating industrial plans, standardizing industry standards and modifying subsidy systems.

Manufacturing technology for lithium-ion batteries and related products is a priority technology field in China. In recent years, China has issued a series of policy plans to promote the progress of lithium-ion battery manufacturing level and technological development.

As a new type of lithium ion battery, the energy efficiency of solid state battery is more in line with China’s expectations for lithium ion battery, and the development of its related products and technologies is also deeply affected by China’s lithium battery related policies.

Technical environment of solid state battery industry

Solid state battery is the only way to develop lithium battery

In recent years, the continuous innovation of the downstream application field has put forward higher and higher requirements for the lithium battery industry, and the lithium battery technology has made continuous progress to higher specific energy and safety.

From the perspective of the development path of lithium battery technology, the energy density achieved by liquid lithium battery has gradually approached its limit, and solid lithium battery will be the only way to develop lithium battery.

Development path of solid state battery technology

Technological progress cannot be achieved overnight, and solid-state batteries need to evolve from liquid electrolyte batteries. In the process, some materials are gradually replaced and some new materials are applied.

From the perspective of the development path of solid state battery technology, during the development of solid state battery, the material of anode and electrolyte has changed greatly, and the diaphragm has been gradually stripped, but the material of cathode has not changed much, and NCM, LCO and other materials are still applied in solid state battery.

From the perspective of the development path of solid state battery technology, during the development of solid state battery, the material of anode and e

Commercial development trend of solid state battery technology

Solid state battery technology is still in the transition stage from mature technology to industrialization, that is, technology promotion and large-scale production verification stage. It is preliminarily predicted that solid state battery technology will be commercialized by 2025 and gradually move towards the next generation of lithium batteries (lithium-metal/lithium-air/lithium sulfur)

Solid state battery industry development environment

Development history of solid state battery industry

Theoretical research can be traced back to 1972

Theoretical research on solid-electrolyte lithium-ion batteries can be traced back to the 1972 NATO conference on “Rapid Ion Transport in Solids” in Belgirate, Italy, where Steele discussed the basic criteria for suitable solid-state electrolytes and pointed out the potential of transition metal disulfide as a cathode material for batteries. In the same year, Armand applied Li/TiS2 to Na+ diffusion in the cathode of ternary graphite with solid β -alumina as electrolyte, which was the first report on solid state battery.

Development status of solid state battery industry

The industry is still in the research and development stage

Currently, more than 50 manufacturers, startups and university research institutes around the world are working on solid-state battery technology, which has yet to be commercialized on a large scale.

It is expected that quasi-solid-state lithium batteries will be industrialized in 2020, and all-solid-state lithium batteries will finally be industrialized in 2025. One of them. European and American companies prefer oxide and polymer systems, while Japanese and Korean companies focus more on sulphide systems.

Europe and America

European and American car companies are paying high attention to solid-state battery start-ups. Companies have acquired technology reserves by acquiring U.S. college-derived startups that have invested in solid-state batteries, such as Solid Power, SolidEnergy Systems, Ionic Materials, Quantum Scape.

Japan and South Korea

Japanese automakers are relatively early in the research and development of solid state batteries. Toyota, the earliest company to enter the market, launched a cooperation with Ilika in 2008, and announced its cooperation with Panasonic in early 2019. Mitsubishi, Nissan, Panasonic and other companies have accelerated the layout of solid state battery industry, to achieve mass production as soon as possible.

China

In solid state battery research, Chinese companies are not as early as Japan, Germany and the United States, but more and more companies have joined in. The main participants include chemistry Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao Energy Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo Institute of Materials of Chinese Academy of Sciences and other research institutions, Ganfeng Lithium, CATL and other battery enterprises;

In solid state battery research, Chinese companies are not as early as Japan, Germany and the United States, but more and more companies have joined in

More companies in other fields are optimistic about cross-border investment in solid batteries, such as Wanxiang Group, which focuses on auto parts, and BYD, a new energy vehicle. Chinese car companies, along with battery companies and emerging electric vehicle manufacturers, are moving faster, with solid-state batteries expected to be installed in electric vehicles by 2025.

Traditional automakers BAIC And BYD are expected to deploy solid-state batteries. New car companies are more receptive to solid state batteries. Nio and Tianji have respectively reached cooperation with Taiwan Huineng Technology to jointly develop power batteries. Nezha Cars also announced plans to cooperate with Qingtao Energy earlier.

Development trend of solid state battery industry

Development planning direction of solid state battery industry

With the continuous improvement of requirements for lithium batteries in downstream application fields, countries are seeking the development of solid state batteries, and relevant plans are gradually falling into place.

Among them, the United States, Japan and Germany have a better development plan. Among them, Japan and Germany are aiming to develop all-solid-state batteries, while also seeking the development of other new concept batteries, while the United States is committed to cost reduction, and the application of new cathode materials.

In December 2019, China released the New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035), which calls for strengthening the research and development and industrialization process of solid state battery, bringing solid state battery to the national level for the first time.

From the current planning, the development goals of Solid-state batteries in China are mainly the improvement of energy density and the progress of material system.

Solid state battery industry market space forecast

Development trend of solid state battery industry

At present, global enterprises begin to increase the research layout of solid state battery, including giants Volkswagen, BMW, Toyota, etc., as well as Chinese giants CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., which is expected to accelerate the industrialization process of solid state lithium battery.

According to estimates, the global demand for solid state battery is expected to reach 44.2GWh and 494.9GWh in 2025 and 2030 respectively, and the global solid-state battery market space is expected to reach more than 150 billion yuan in 2030.

The demand for solid-state batteries mainly comes from power batteries, consumer batteries and energy storage batteries. The shipment of solid-state batteries in China is closely related to the demand for lithium batteries in these three fields and the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in these three fields.

According to the calculation logic, the shipment of solid state battery in China from 2020 to 2030 is predicted, and it is estimated that the shipment of solid state battery in China in 2030 May break through 250GWh.

With the continuous progress of solid state battery technology, the cost and price of solid state battery will also continue to decline. It can be preliminaries that by 2030, China’s solid state battery market space may reach 20 billion yuan, a hundredfold increase compared to 2020.

Prediction of development trend of solid state battery industry

Considering the development path of lithium battery technology, various plans, as well as the demand growth of downstream power batteries and energy storage batteries, the development of solid state battery industry will become an inevitable trend.

In the future, relevant technologies in China’s solid-state battery industry will continue to improve, and solid-state batteries will also present higher energy density, better safety and lower cost. The time for large-scale production and commercial development of solid-state batteries is not far away.

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