Overview of battery aluminum foil market development
At the same time, battery current collectors are also required to have lower roughness, better conductivity, tensile strength, and elongation, and also have higher requirements for product consistency and stability. Therefore, battery aluminum foil has higher requirements on equipment and processes, and has certain requirements.
The workmanship of battery aluminum foil
The battery aluminum foil is rolled with electrolytic aluminum (aluminum ingot) provided by upstream suppliers. The battery aluminum foil has very high performance indicators such as plate quality, geometric size, surface quality, mechanical properties, and surface wetting tension, and has a high technical threshold.
In terms of production process, in addition to smelting, casting/hot rolling, cold rolling, annealing, foil rolling and other processes, it also needs to undergo processing processes such as stitching, finishing rolling, corona treatment, gravure conductive coating, and precision slitting.
Brief analysis of battery aluminum foil industry chain
Aluminum foil is a foil made of aluminum. Among them, the battery aluminum foil industry chain is simpler than the ordinary aluminum foil industry chain. The upstream main raw materials such as aluminum ingots, and the midstream main battery aluminum foil manufacturing enterprises, mainly including aluminum foil manufacturers and new entrants.
Dingsheng New Materials and North China Aluminum occupy the main market share. With the continuous growth of demand, ordinary aluminum foil manufacturers such as Wanshun New Materials and Dongyang Sunshine continue to deploy, and the overall competition intensifies. The downstream is mainly used as cathode current collector for lithium batteries, and also With cost and performance advantages, it can be subdivided into power, consumption and energy storage.
Upstream
In the complete cost composition of battery aluminum foil, direct materials account for about 85%, of which the most important raw material is aluminum ingots. The battery aluminum foil adopts the cost-plus pricing method, the sales price = “aluminum ingot + processing fee”, and the price rises with the price of aluminum ingot. Since 2020, affected by the fluctuation of the overall aluminum price, the price of aluminum ingots in China has shown a steady growth trend.
The price of aluminum ingots in China has reached about 22,916.3 RMB per ton, an increase of about 57.7% compared with the beginning of 2020. The rise in raw materials has caused the battery to a certain extent. The rise in aluminum foil prices has led to a continuous increase in the overall operating rate of the aluminum foil industry and an increase in the industry’s prosperity.
Downstream
The main new energy vehicles downstream of the battery aluminum foil terminal, with the increasingly clear requirements for “carbon neutrality” and “carbon peaking”, energy replacement is imminent, driving the continuous growth of new energy vehicle production and sales. According to data, market sales have exploded since 2021. Reaching 3.545 million vehicles, since 2022, the market has maintained a high degree of prosperity, with production and sales in March of 1.881 million and 1.864 million respectively.
The high prosperity of the downstream industry has driven the demand for battery aluminum foil to continue to rise, driving the shipment of battery aluminum foil to continue to rise. At present, the trend of new energy vehicles in the world is still advancing, and there is still a broad market for battery aluminum foil in China.
Status of battery aluminum foil industry
Shipments
As far as battery aluminum foil shipments are concerned, affected by the substantial increase in the overall demand for downstream new energy vehicles, China’s battery aluminum foil shipments have grown significantly, exceeding 130,000 tons in 2021, an increase of more than 100% year-on-year in 2020.
Overall, China’s overall aluminum foil is currently overcapacity, while battery aluminum foil is affected by high overall barriers, coupled with the outbreak of downstream demand, the industry’s overall supply is tight, according to policy guidance, China’s new energy vehicle penetration rate still has a lot of room for development , the battery aluminum foil industry shipments are expected to continue to grow.
Yield
As far as the production of battery aluminum foil is concerned, the overall demand drives the continuous growth of production. According to statistics, China’s battery aluminum foil production will explode in 2021, reaching 140,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 100%.
As a battery cathode material current collector, although the cost of aluminum foil is low in lithium batteries, it is indispensable. Especially with the continuous boom in the new energy vehicle industry, the market demand for lithium battery aluminum foil has ushered in an explosion. At present, the market supply of battery aluminum foil is tight, and the overall price remains stable with an upward trend.
Market structure
As far as the aluminum foil market structure is concerned, the proportion of China’s battery aluminum foil continues to increase. According to the data, the proportion of China’s battery aluminum foil in total aluminum foil production will increase from 1.7% in 2020 to 3.1% in 2021, mainly due to the increase in the operating rate of the industry driven by the outbreak of downstream demand.
At present, the growth rate of China’s battery aluminum foil is much higher than that of the aluminum foil industry as a whole. It is expected that the overall proportion will continue to increase with the overall demand in the downstream power field and energy storage industry.
Development trend of battery aluminum foil
Supply will remain tight
The industry expands more production but it takes time to release. It is expected that the battery aluminum foil will be in a tight balance in the next 2-3 years. Since battery aluminum foil has a long production expansion cycle and long verification cycle, the yield rate is low, and it is difficult to switch production.
Therefore, it is expected that it will be difficult to release new production capacity in the next 2-3 years. The processing fee of battery aluminum foil will increase in 2021, which further reflects the characteristics of the seller’s market. .
Demand for power and energy storage continues to rise
It is expected that the proportion of downstream power battery demand for battery aluminum foil will increase significantly, the growth rate of energy storage will also be rapid, and the share of consumer batteries will further decline. Power battery is also very popular in Chinese battery market. You can read our article of top 10 power battery companies in the world to know more.
Due to the relatively stable growth of consumer electronics and the great prospects of power batteries and energy storage, it is expected that from 2021, the proportion of consumption of power batteries will continue, and the proportion of aluminum foil demand for energy storage batteries will continue to rise.
As far as the battery aluminum foil market structure is concerned, the industry concentration is outstanding among battery materials. According to the survey, the CR3 of the battery aluminum foil industry has reached 78%. The main reason for the current shortage of supply in the industry is that the battery aluminum foil has deeper technical barriers compared with ordinary aluminum foil, and companies with early layout in China have a first-mover advantage.
As the overall production and sales of the industry boomed, the industry concentration decreased slightly, the market share of Dingsheng New Materials and North China Aluminum changed little, and the output of Wanshun New Materials and other enterprises increased significantly.
