Battery materials may balance supply and demand in two or three years

“Chip shortage, battery price hike, and difficulty in charging” have become a hot topic and a realistic challenge for TOP 10 special vehicle power battery manufacturers in China and even the world at the beginning of 2022. When will this situation improve?

On March 26, Ouyang Minggao, vice chairman of China Electric Vehicles Association of 100 and academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, delivered a speech at the Forum of 100.

He discussed a series of key industry issues such as new energy vehicle sales expectations, rising battery prices and production capacity, battery technology roadmap evolution and target standards, and ideal charging system construction.

He predicts, in two or three years, raw materials such as lithium carbonate may restore a complete balance of supply and demand. In 2025, China’s power battery production capacity may reach 3,000GWh, while battery shipments are expected to reach 1,200GWh in 2025. There will be significant excess capacity.

In addition, it also stated that the supply of original mineral resources and recycled resources will reach a considerable level around 2050; in terms of the evolution of power battery technology, the industrialization goal of battery energy density in 2025 is 350 Wh/kg, and the goal in 2030 is to reach 400 Wh/kg, 2035 target is 500 Wh/kg.

The target of cycle life is 10,000 times, and both lithium iron phosphate and ternary are expected to be reached; the Chaoji charging standard that can support high-power fast charging is expected to be submitted for approval in the third quarter; with the increase in the number of electric vehicles, the electricity that can participate in power grid peak regulation and frequency regulation and power are very impressive;

Total carbon emissions from passenger cars are expected to peak ahead of schedule by 2030. The sales volume of new energy vehicles will be basically the same as that of fuel vehicles around 2030.

Battery materials are expected to restore supply and demand balance in two to three years

Ouyang Minggao believes that the reason for the price increase of battery materials this year is that on the one hand, the demand for complete vehicles has increased, and the battery is expected to rise, (causing) companies to expand production capacity and increase reserves;

On the other hand, another reason for the impact is the delay in supply, because the typical production cycle of lithium carbonate production from ore is 3-5 years, and the cycle of lithium extraction from brine is longer.

From the perspective of supply, the economic recoverable reserves of global lithium resources increased by 400% from 2005 to 2010, and now the global economic recoverable reserves are 22 million tons, which can be installed in 2.27 billion vehicles (taking NCM811 battery as an example, it can produce 227TWh power battery, 100 kWh battery per vehicle). And new exploration and recoverable reserves continue to increase.

From the demand side, the increase in demand brought about by panic inventory reserves is temporary. With the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it will gradually return to the basic demand side. It is expected that a full supply and demand balance may be restored after two or three years.

Battery overcapacity expected in 2025

Based on industry investment information forecasts, China’s battery production capacity may reach 1.5 billion kWh (1500GWh) in 2023, 3 billion kWh (3000GWh) in 2025, and battery shipments are expected to reach 1200GWh in 2025.

Seventy to eighty percent of them will be used in the China market, and twenty to thirty percent will be exported to overseas markets.

It is estimated that there will be excess battery capacity in 2025.

After 2030 battery material recycling will form a scale

It is estimated that there will be 125 million kWh of recycling in 2025, and battery material recycling will form a large scale after 2030; around 2050, the supply of original mineral resources and recycled resources will reach a considerable level;

In the longer term, recycled resources will gradually and completely replace the demand for original resources.

2025-2035 from liquid systems to all-solid-state batteries

In terms of the evolution of power battery technology, Ouyang Minggao also made predictions.

The industrialization target of battery energy density in 2025 is 350 Wh/kg (currently less than 300 Wh/kg). This stage is still a liquid electrolyte system, mainly including conventional lithium-ion battery materials, solid-liquid hybrid materials, and liquid battery material systems such as sodium ions and future potassium ions.

The goal in 2030 is to reach 400 Wh/kg and realize industrialization in all directions. This stage is the transition from liquid to solid state, including liquid high voltage, thick electrodes, and less electrolyte; positive electrode with high nickel such as Ni95, negative electrode silicon carbon; and quasi-solid-state battery system.

2030 should be a key node in the transition to the development of all-solid-state batteries. In 2030, he estimates that the proportion of China all-solid-state batteries will not exceed 1%.

The goal in 2035 is to reach 500 Wh/kg and achieve industrialization. Including all-solid-state batteries, lithium-sulfur batteries and high-capacity lithium-rich manganese-based materials, and the voltage window will be increased to 5 volts.

Battery life target – 10,000 cycles

Based on the consideration of large-scale energy storage functions, the requirements for battery life will become longer and longer, and the target is 10,000 times.

Ouyang Minggao regards specific energy and life as two axes, and can clearly see the future multi-technology route:

High specific energy and low-cost liquid technology route, the positive electrode is high nickel ternary to lithium-rich manganese base, and the negative electrode is from high proportion of silicon carbon to lithium metal, the specific energy target is 500wh/kg, but the life is relatively low;

Liquid compromise route, taking into account specific energy, safety, cost and life, high nickel cathode system, the life is not reduced, the specific energy is increased by 50%, or the specific energy is not reduced, the life is increased by more than 3 times, approaching 10,000 cycles;

The high-safety liquid route based on iron-lithium has the lowest cost and long life span of more than 10,000 cycles. Research in recent years shows that liquid ternary can also do 10,000 cycles.

Chaoji charging standard is expected to be submitted for approval in the third quarter

It is difficult to crack charging. First of all, the charging innovation standard must be the first. Chaoji is a set of DC charging solutions with independent intellectual property rights initiated and led by China.

It takes into account the past (can directly match the existing GB system), faces the future (350 kW high-power fast charging, low-power charging DC and V2G interaction with the vehicle network), leads the world (synchronizes with IEC international standards, and promotes Chinese enterprises to go global. Promote the unification of international interface standards).

The first phase of the Chaoji demonstration project has been completed: in 2019, high-power charging demonstration projects have been completed and put into operation in 8 cities including Beijing.

The second-phase Chaoji demonstration project is put into operation this year: ChaoJi charging station is under construction on the Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second quarter of 2022.

Chaoji national standards are being developed, including GB/T 20234.4 (connection components), GB/T 27930 (communication protocol), GB/T 18487.1 (charging system). GB/T 18487.1 and 27930 have been solicited for two rounds of comments, and GB/T 20234.4 has been solicited for one round of comments. It is expected to be submitted for approval in the third quarter of this year.

This charging standard upgrade will bring huge opportunities for the development of super fast charging and charging and replacement, and the development of orderly slow charging and vehicle network interaction.

Orderly charging has a bright future

With the increase in the number of electric vehicles, the huge demand for charging will inevitably lead to the supply capacity of the grid. The solution is orderly charging.

Ouyang Minggao introduced that the orderly charging and vehicle-network interaction technologies include one-way orderly charging V1G, two-way flow of vehicle-network energy V2G, and vehicle-connected everything V2X.

V1G is a one-way orderly charging, such as charging to the bottom of the power consumption in the middle of the night; V2G is a vehicle that can supply power in reverse, can be charged and discharged, and power supply to the local area network and large power grid; V2X includes power supply from vehicles to vehicles, power supply to buildings, Emergency power supply, home backup power supply, etc.

According to China’s energy-saving new energy vehicle roadmap, there will be 300 million new energy vehicles in 2040. The amount of electricity charged in vehicles is equivalent to the total electricity consumed every day in China in 2020 (calculated at 65 kW/vehicle, the energy storage capacity of the vehicle battery is 20 billion kWh).

However, after considering the travel demand, the average amount of electricity that a passenger car can flexibly participate in grid dispatching is 10 billion kWh per day.

Even more meaningful is the power regulation potential of the vehicle. If the two-way charging pile is calculated according to the power of 15 kilowatts, according to the daily travel probability distribution, the capacity of 300 million new energy vehicles to support the power grid power will reach about 3 billion kilowatts, which is even higher than the national installed capacity of 2.38 billion kilowatts.

Just orderly charging can change the power consumption of new energy vehicles from disorder to order, and greatly reduce the load on the grid.

In 2030, the number of electric vehicles will reach 80 million to 100 million. Ouyang Minggao predicts that after 2030, with the popularization and development of V2G, its capacity will exceed the electrochemical battery energy storage capacity of the grid.

In the future power system, electric vehicles will share the important responsibility of stabilizing the power grid with energy storage power stations, and are expected to become the main body of distributed energy storage.

Sales of new energy and fuel vehicles will be the same in 2030

In 2021, China’s new energy vehicle industry has achieved a transition from a growth period to an explosive growth period, five years ahead of previous forecasts. Moreover, the role of electric vehicles in China’s realization of the “dual carbon” goal has become increasingly prominent.

First, electric vehicles will ensure that the car’s carbon peak is achieved by 2030. Ouyang Minggao’s calculations show that in 2021, the carbon emissions of electric vehicles will be about 70 grams per kilometer. Compared with the 170 grams of carbon emissions per kilometer of fuel vehicles, the emissions of pure electric vehicles are basically only 40% of those of fuel vehicles.

Based on this and considering the development trend of vehicle scale, the total carbon emission of passenger cars is expected to peak ahead of time before 2030, with a peak value of less than 600 million tons.

Second, after 2030-2035, electric vehicles will begin to become carbon-negative units. Based on the vehicle-to-network interaction technology (V2G), electric vehicles can be used as an energy storage device to realize energy storage for zero-carbon new energy fluctuating power such as wind and photovoltaics, suppress carbon emissions from thermal power plants, and bring about emission reduction effects, which is of symbolic significance. 

The negative carbon effect of new energy vehicles will benefit from a series of policy support, and global carbon emission will be drastically reduced. The forecast results of Ouyang Minggao’s team show that the peak of fuel vehicle sales will appear in 2022-2023, and then the sales of fuel vehicles will continue to decline, while the sales of new energy vehicles will be basically the same as fuel vehicles around 2030, accounting for 3% of total vehicle sales. Half, roughly the same as the goal of China’s energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap.