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Research and development direction of ternary precursors
Lithium battery cathode materials are mainly divided into lithium manganese oxide (LMO), lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) and NCA/NCM ternary cathode materials.
The NCA/NCM ternary precursors combine the advantages of nickel, cobalt, and aluminum (manganese), and has the advantages of high energy density, high cruising range, and high cost performance. In recent years, as the shipments of power batteries have continued to increase, the market size of ternary precursors has also continued to grow.
Two mainstream technical routes for power batteries – iron phosphate and ternary
Divided according to the type of cathode material, lithium batteries currently include lithium cobalt oxide batteries, ternary lithium battery, lithium iron phosphate batteries, etc. Lithium iron phosphate and lithium nickel cobalt manganate (belonging to ternary lithium) are currently the two most mainstream lithium batteries for electric vehicles.
Lithium iron phosphate battery
Lithium iron phosphate battery refers to a lithium ion battery that uses lithium iron phosphate as the cathode material. It has the advantages of high safety, long cycle life, rate discharge, and high temperature resistance.
Ternary lithium battery
Ternary lithium battery refers to a lithium secondary battery that uses three transition metal oxides of nickel, cobalt, and manganese as the cathode material. It fully integrates the good cycle performance of lithium cobalt oxide, the high specific capacity of lithium nickel oxide, and the high safety and low cost of lithium manganate.
Ternary battery is a lithium-ion rechargeable battery that has been widely researched and applied. Comparing lfp vs nmc battery, because of ternary battery’s good low-temperature discharge performance, higher energy density and higher charging efficiency, ternary lithium batteries are more suitable for household electric vehicles. According to the different nickel content, ternary batteries can be divided into low nickel, medium nickel, high nickel and other types.
The precursors are the core component of the ternary cathode, which is closely related to the market situation of the ternary cathode material. In recent years, as the shipments of power batteries have continued to increase, the market size of ternary precursors has also continued to grow.
The ternary precursors are an intermediate product with a highly uniform distribution of various elements prepared by a solution process, and the product can be made into a ternary cathode material through a chemical reaction with a lithium salt.
The ternary precursors (simply understood as the part of the cathode material that removes lithium) are the key link between the upstream metal and the downstream cathode material. Ternary precursors can be divided into NCM811 precursors, NCM622 precursors, NCM523 precursors and NCA precursors according to the composition ratio of elements.
There are two main types of ternary precursors in China
NCM ternary precursors
NCM ternary precursor, also known as nickel cobalt lithium manganate ternary precursor, is a kind of ternary precursors material, and its chemical formula is NixCoyMnz(OH)2, x+y+z=1. It is currently the most widely used ternary precursor material in China. According to different models, NCM ternary precursors are divided into NCM3 series, 5 series, 6 series, 7 series, and 8 series. The difference lies in the molar ratio of the three elements of nickel, cobalt and manganese.
NCA ternary precursors
NCA ternary precursor, also known as nickel cobalt lithium aluminate ternary precursor, is a kind of ternary precursors material. The chemical formula is NixCoyAlz(OH)2, x+y+z=1, and the molar content of nickel in the three elements of nickel, cobalt and aluminum is more than 80%. It has higher energy density and lower cost, and is mainly used for the preparation of high-nickel ternary cathode materials.
Ternary precursors industry chain
Resource side: raw ores of nickel, cobalt, and manganese.
Upstream smelting end: smelting mineral raw materials into crude metal materials.
Midstream smelting end: make nickel and cobalt intermediates into sulfate.
Ternary precursors: they are prepared by mixing nickel-cobalt-manganese salt with ammonia water and alkali.
Ternary cathode material: it is obtained by mixing and sintering the ternary precursors and lithium source at high temperature. Among them, lithium sources are mainly lithium carbonate (commonly used below NCM8 series) and lithium hydroxide (commonly used above NCM8 series).
Ternary lithium battery: downstream application of ternary cathode materials.
Ternary precursors market expected shipments
In terms of the global market, according to the data, the global shipments of ternary precursors will reach 420,000 tons in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%. It is estimated that by 2025, the shipment volume is expected to reach 1.6 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 30.67% compared with 2020, mainly driven by downstream electric vehicles, high-end digital and other fields.
In the Chinese market, from 2015 to 2020, China’s shipments of ternary precursors have risen rapidly, reaching 330,000 tons in 2020, with a compound growth rate of 52.51%. The rapid growth in shipments of ternary precursors is due to the rapid development of downstream industries.
High nickel ternary precursor is the direction of development
Ternary cathode materials with high nickel, single crystal and low cobalt
In order to meet consumers’ requirements for the power performance and battery life of electric vehicles, the energy density and battery life requirements of new electric vehicles are increasing day by day.
Most manufacturers of ternary lithium-ion batteries such as top 5 high nickel ternary precursor companies achieve the above performance requirements by increasing the content of nickel in ternary cathode materials. The high nickel content of ternary cathode materials is expected to become one of the technical trends of power batteries.
The polycrystalline ternary cathode material is easy to crack and break during the charge and discharge cycle due to the large amount of fine powder, which shortens the cycle life of the battery. Single crystal ternary cathode materials can better overcome the above-mentioned shortcomings of polycrystalline ternary cathode materials, and the single crystallization of ternary cathode materials is expected to become one of the technical trends of power batteries.
Due to the high price of metal cobalt, reducing the cobalt content of the ternary cathode material without affecting the performance is conducive to reducing the production cost of power batteries and improving their cost performance. The low-cobaltization of ternary cathode materials will also be one of the technical trends of power batteries.
The proportion of high-nickel ternary lithium batteries is gradually increasing
According to statistics, among the ternary cathode materials, the market share of high-nickel materials will be 30%+ in 2021, and the demand for high-nickel materials is expected to increase to 64% in 2025. SMM believes that in 2025, the ternary lithium battery market will be dominated by 8-series and 9-series ternary lithium batteries, and high-nickel materials will become the market leader.
The price of nickel is closely related to the price of ternary precursors, and the rising cost reduces the profit margin of manufacturers
The pricing model of ternary precursors manufacturers is “cost plus”, and the product price is closely related to the price of metal salts such as nickel, cobalt, and manganese. It is difficult for ternary precursors manufacturers to excavate excess profits from processing fees, so they need to start from the raw material side and find room for cost reduction and efficiency increase through stable raw material supply.
