The situation of energy storage Europe

Energy storage Europe situation and future trends

Recently, natural gas and electricity prices have skyrocketed, and energy storage resources in Europe are in short supply. What is the specific situation of energy storage Europe? Check out the FAQs blow.
 
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The situation of the energy storage Europe

The demand can be seen from the perspective of orders at the end of the year, and there is no problem from the perspective of delivery to the second quarter of next year.

Electricity price is a very important factor affecting energy storage Europe. High electricity price is good. Electricity price has been rising recently, and the demand will be stronger in winter. Orders will continue to grow from September to the fourth quarter, and customers expect better next year than this year.

Manufacturers are also expanding production. The pace of expansion is high. It is a common phenomenon to double the expansion of batteries. The inverter may be more exaggerated.

Maybe this year’s shipments may only account for 30%, 40% of the order volume, and a little more than 50%. In terms of expectations, we feel that the expectations from this year to next year are still relatively good. War or electricity price is a catalyst, and future demand will continue to be positive.

Is the terminal residential electricity price higher

70 euro cents per kilowatt-hour of electricity is a bare price, and the electricity price surcharge has actually reached a peak of 1 euro before. The whole of Europe began to gather natural gas in September, and the shortage was high.

This summer is hotter, with a lot of air conditioning loads, and it will be colder after winter. Fluctuations in natural gas are a natural occurrence. The gas cut will affect the price of natural gas, and the short-term situation will continue. The electricity price of 70 cents and 100 cents will be seen later.

ROI period for household energy storage Europe

5kW, 10 kWh of electricity, the purchase cost of residents including the installation fee is about 10,000 euros. Previously, the electricity price was calculated based on the average value of 40 euro cents in Germany, with a discharge coefficient of 90%.

The investment return period was seven years, and the electricity price reached 80 euro cents in half the time. At present, subsidies are not considered.

Although from the current point of view, Western European countries, including Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary in Eastern Europe, may also have subsidies in the future, but they have not been taken into account.

ROI cycle for household energy storage Europe

Is the demand side for high economy or energy security

According to the current electricity price plus subsidies, it is easy to calculate the account. The second is the mentality of the impact of the closure of the city in Shanghai, and the worry of the energy crisis.

Relatively speaking, combined with the current electricity price and subsidies, the behavior of battery storage is not excessive, mainly because the latter has a large psychological factor.

The gross profit of dealers and installers is definitely higher than that of packs in China, and even the net profit is definitely higher. Residents are afraid of rising electricity prices, and subsidizing energy security is an inevitable trend. If the war continues, there will be more hoarding.

Where is the bottleneck in the installation of energy storage Europe

Chinese supply chain
One of the bottlenecks is the Chinese supply chain problem, such as the problem of the chip IGBT of the inverter, but the replacement of Chinese production will gradually ease.

Shenzhen is relatively radical and has been replacing it for a long time. Jiangsu and Zhejiang in East China are relatively conservative, cautious, and gradually replace it. The pressure on the supply chain will be eased by the end of next year.

Lithium is relatively serious at present, because power will still suppress household storage, unless there is some power-end production capacity that can be released to the energy storage end. On the whole, energy storage Europe will still be in a tightening state next year.

Lithium will still be at a high price next year, and manufacturers will still be willing to buy for orders to maintain delivery orders. Of course, we definitely don’t want to see such a state. The supply chain’s concerns are indeed caused by the demand for orders.

Shipping
The second is shipping. Inflation is serious in Europe. Will there be a strike due to hot weather? Germany has such a situation, the Netherlands and the UK are better, and the overall impact is not large.

In addition, we should pay attention to the installation workers. The time for installation on the delivery side is lengthening, but it is also easing. Starting in May, workers will be given higher wages and better benefits.

Recruit
The third is to recruit, for example, some workers in Eastern Europe, Hungary, Ukraine, and even Poland, and even Chinese manufacturers will introduce workers with international electrical certification qualifications.

Because it is a high income, you can earn hundreds of thousands of euros a year with an international electrician’s certificate. There must be people with high incomes. I think it is a short-term impact. Our main concern is the supply chain.

Do energy storage Europe dealers stock up

Do energy storage Europe dealers stock up

At present, there is no battery in Europe, and the inventory is relatively tight. What we mean by stockpiling is that the dealer places the order in advance, and the whole of Europe is still short of batteries.

The only worry is that for example, if you stay there, no one wants it later, but the goods in the dealer’s hands have been ordered by the installer, and you need to pay 30% in advance.

For installers who have already received money from the common people, even a small amount of inventory will not affect much. Don’t worry about this for a year or two.

Is the European heat pump also nervous

Judging from the customer inquiries, the demand for heat pumps has increased significantly in the past two months. The increase in heat pump power consumption leads to an increase in the demand for energy storage.

As long as the roof is large enough, more photovoltaic panels will be laid, and the logic of the inverter battery capacity will also increase.

The cycle of new brand verification

Mainstream markets, Japan, the United States, Australia and energy storage Europe.

The threshold for energy storage Europe is currently relatively low, because the certification cycle is relatively short, about one and a half to two months for the battery pack, and the inverter can be done synchronously at about this time.

If it is a new enterprise entering the market basically in an integrated way, its certification can be obtained in about two months.

Of course, if the verification is a mature product, the verification on the market side basically does not take too long.Because the performance of the product itself and the entire verification have already been completed, as long as the supply chain can be completed, the work can be done in 2 to 3 months.

Will the entry of Chinese products into the energy storage Europe market affect the prices of local manufacturers

Will Chinese products into the energy storage Europe market affect the prices of local manufacturers

In energy storage Europe inverters are also sold out. First-tier brands like Kato and SMA in Germany, Fronius in Austria, etc., the price of well-known local brands is twice or even twice as expensive as in China.

The main reason is that labor costs are high, and the willingness to expand production is not strong. Even if the expansion route is adopted, the cycle is very long.

Even if the price increase is 30%, it has little impact. Some Germans like to use good things and do not pursue cost-effectiveness. The price increase of Chinese products has a greater impact on dealers.

There is no shortage of chips from major manufacturers in other countries. The reason for the shortage of IGBT chips is that manufacturers in other countries will give priority to ensuring the supply in other countries.

China’s market share in energy storage Europe

Good sales in Spain, UK and Italy. The economy is not particularly good for the pursuit of cost-effectiveness. BYD’s price to dealers is 20% to 30% more expensive than other leading Chinese manufacturers, just to sell in German-speaking regions.

Therefore, those high-priced items that can sell well must be those manufacturers with relatively strong brands.

What is the core competitiveness of household storage integrators

Products are important, but homogeneity is heavily convergent. A typical BYD pylontech is adapted to the inverter, pylontech takes the route compatible with all inverters, and BYD takes the high-end route.

The adaptation of BMS and inverter is very important. The BMS must be continuously invested, and the inverter has no EMS link in the household storage.

From the perspective of core competitiveness, the comprehensive competitiveness of channels, brands and products is important.

BYD and CATL with strong brands can sell their brands because they have done a good job in the foundation. The core logic is the promotion of brand power + product power combined with channels.

The tendency of battery cell prices to rise

The tendency of battery cell prices to rise

In the first half of the year, all inverter batteries such as pylontech and BYD have increased their prices since November last year, mainly due to the large fluctuation of lithium carbonate and the lack of components for the inverter.

Lithium carbonate has been on the rise recently, and the price of battery packs has not increased at present.

Will there be oversupply when multiple companies enter the energy storage market

The globalization of lithium battery replacement lead acid is obvious, and the second is that the supply of raw materials will be tight by 23 years. The upstream side is tight, and the demand side continues to expand.

The release of production capacity by the middle or end of next year may have an impact, which requires continuous observation. Sufficient supply or a sudden drop in natural gas drives the possibility of a price war.

Germany has a penetration rate of 10% this year, based on available roof penetration. Japan and North America have just started, and the barriers to entry are high. Other companies in these two markets have difficult barriers to enter.

At present, the competition in Africa, Central and South Asia, and the Middle East is fierce in some regions, but it is not the market for major companies.

There may be some competition next year, depending on market positioning and changes in demand, there may be a small probability in part, but the entire large market will be fine.

Top 5 energy storage manufacturers by Region

At present, the main companies include one of top 5 energy storage battery companies, Tesla, BYD, and Pylontech, as well as inverters including Jinlang, GoodWe, Deye, Growatt, Airo, and First Air.

At present, Tesla is mainly still in the North American market and the Australian market, and some African markets, especially the South African market, and it does less in the energy storage Europe market.

Then, of course, there is a brand called sona in Germany, like sona or BYD, mainly in the German market, and also sells part of the North American and Australian markets.

In addition to the German market, Pylontech is also very strong similar to Western Europe, and Eastern Europe currently has a lot of this point, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Turkey are all on the rise.

Then the Australian market also produced some volume. Japan and North America mainly go to OEM, and there is also a certain volume.

South African Pioneer belongs to the head, and its shipments ranked first last year. There is also a company like GoodWe, which is a bit like a global company.

Goodwe can be seen from the German region to the Czech and Eastern European markets, and the Polish market can be seen. In addition to the UK market which may be slightly less, Italy and Spain are all selling well, and then Australia also has GE OEM markets including the United States and Southeast Asia.

Then Growatt is also similar, from energy storage Europe to Germany to the US market, including the markets in Africa and South America have shipments.

Airro mainly focuses on the energy storage Europe market, that is, the British market, the Italian market, the Spanish market, including the German market, and a large number of OEMs for a large customer in Germany.

Top 5 energy storage manufacturers by Region

The general trend in the future is split type and integrated type

From the perspective of enterprises, inverters are the main promoters of integrated types. As long as the supply chain is fixed, it has advantages over battery packs, but it is difficult to judge.

From the market, the energy storage Europe split type is also sold a lot.Germany coexists as a single body, and the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa all like the split type, and the distributors who purchase separately have the right to bargain.

The US market has more integrated types because of Tesla’s influence, also powerwall battery will be more and more popular.

Which one is lower in cost

Batteries account for the majority, and the advantages of battery cells are more obvious. Inverters account for 20 to 30 percent. At present, batteries are dominant. The advantages of the battery will disappear after the battery supply is balanced in the future.

Growth rate in the next three years

This year, the world is 15-20GWh, and energy storage Europe accounts for half of it. Next year, household savings will be conservatively doubled to around 35~45GWh.

There is a possibility that competition will intensify in the next year, which will affect part of the gross profit but the volume will continue to grow as the penetration rate increases and the acceptance rate increases.

In addition, the market development of the United States and Japan will increase the volume.

Will household energy storage be home appliances

Not quite. Tesla is a TOC, and this model is helpful to the brand, but currently China is still a dealer and installer. Going down is still difficult because it involves cultural acceptance.

Photovoltaic is very mature, but the current route is still the same, and the dealer route is still the direction for the next three to five years.

Looking down at the changes in the market, lithium batteries are electrochemical products with certain dangers, which are difficult in the short term. It will be better to continue to take the volume and share the profits with the local.

Impact on home storage if natural gas slumps

Impact on home storage if natural gas slumps

The odds are slim, it’s hard to see in a year or two. In addition to Europe, the whole of the war has benefited, and it is difficult to stop personal judgment.

Second, even if this happens, Russia will not reduce the price of natural gas, because the pipeline is single, and the construction of pipelines in other regions will be difficult to complete without three years.

Even if there is no war in Russia, it will still make a fortune, and the impact on household savings will be limited. It may ease in the short term, and the psychological panic is still there.

It is difficult to see a short-term slump. The price drop will not affect the heavy volume, but the gross profit margin will be lower, but the gross profit will not drop much, and the overall optimistic attitude.

Will China follow other national brands to raise prices

It is possible if lithium carbonate prices remain high. Although other countries have raised prices, the logic of China’s price increase is unreasonable. Other countries are expensive in labor and inflation.

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However, as long as the cost pressure is not particularly obvious in China, it may not necessarily bargain with customers, and will not go to short-term squeeze. There are also some manufacturers who raise prices because of good customer demand, which is an individual phenomenon.

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