Market and prospect analysis of heavy trucks battery swapping

Market and prospect analysis of heavy trucks battery swapping

In 2021, under the continuous promotion of the national “dual carbon” strategy, China’s new energy heavy trucks will usher in a relatively high growth in production and sales. Entering 2022, when the heavy truck industry fell into a trough, new energy heavy trucks rose against the trend, and the market penetration rate continued to expand.

In particular, power-replacement heavy-duty trucks are favored and sought after by more and more people because of their advantages such as high energy replenishment efficiency and flexible business models. The market sales in 2022 will be eye-catching.

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In the future, China will usher in a period of high-speed growth of heavy-duty trucks. At the same time, as the uploader and trailer companies associated with the heavy-duty truck industry, they will also usher in market opportunities.

Advantages of China’s battery replacement heavy truck market

In recent years, China’s new energy vehicle industry has shown explosive growth driven by policies. In terms of commercial vehicles, heavy trucks are the focus of the national transportation carbon reduction strategy, and the development of new energy heavy trucks has become an industry consensus.

At present, China’s pure electric heavy trucks mainly have two kinetic energy supply methods: charging mode and battery swapping mode. In the market, the power exchange mode of new energy heavy trucks realizes the advantage that users do not need to wait for a long time.

At the same time, in terms of the purchase cost of “vehicle and electricity separation”, the power exchange of heavy trucks has more commercial flexibility, and the output is more economical. At present, the battery capacity of battery swapping heavy trucks is mostly 282kwh, and the operating mileage can be effectively improved through battery swapping technology.
Charging mode heavy truck

In the battery swap mode, the truck battery can achieve centralized charging, effective monitoring, and unified management, reducing the loss of the battery during the fast charging process, and extending the battery life.

Compared with the charging mode, the application of the battery swapping mode shortens the energy replenishment time and is more suitable for commercial operations. This has also allowed many OEMs, battery companies, and financial institutions to invest in technical research and financial support for the power exchange heavy-duty truck business, and at the same time accelerated the construction and development of the power exchange platform.

Swapping mode heavy truck

Comparison of energy replenishment efficiency between battery swap mode and charging mode

kinetic energy supply Energy efficiency
Charging mode1-1.5 Hours(fast charge)
Battery swap mode3-6 minutes

At present, the terminal sales price of traditional fuel heavy trucks is about 300,000 to 450,000 RMB, while the terminal sales price of pure electric heavy trucks is generally 650,000 to 800,000 RMB. Even some of the pure electric heavy trucks with high capacity are sold at a price of more than 900,000 RMB, of which the battery cost accounts for nearly half.

In terms of commercial operation, the battery-swapping heavy-duty card is sold in the way of “vehicle-electricity separation”, which makes the battery-swapping model more suitable for promotion.

At present, China’s “vehicle-electricity separation” business model has initially formed a battery leasing service business with the deep participation of OEMs, battery swap operators, battery companies, and financial institutions. Customers are more selective when purchasing power-replacement heavy-duty trucks, and the advantages of power-replacement heavy-duty trucks are further highlighted.

Tractors and dump trucks battery swap become the main force

Under the continuous efforts of the “dual carbon” strategy, it is regarded as the best application scenario of new energy heavy trucks in the short-distance, high-carbon emission transportation fields such as ports, mines, steel mills, construction sites, etc., where the exercise range and operation time are relatively fixed. The market demand for battery swap tractors and dump trucks has also ushered in a “golden age”.

As of the 356th batch of announcements of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are 389 battery replacement products (excluding battery replacement chassis). Among them, there are 309 types of battery-changing heavy trucks (126 types of tractors, 125 types of dump trucks, and 58 types of mixer trucks). China’s OEMs and refitted vehicle manufacturers are also very active in the application of battery swapped heavy truck models, showing full confidence in the prospect of battery swapped heavy trucks.

Proportion of various battery swap products

China’s battery swap heavy truck has a bright future

With the guidance of national policies, the transformation of heavy trucks to new energy has become the general trend. At the same time, the state has also accelerated the process of promoting the formulation and implementation of the “double points” policy for commercial vehicles.

At present, the demand for new energy heavy trucks in China is increasing, the market size is expanding year by year, and the industry development is on an upward trend.

Since the standards for battery replacement heavy trucks have not yet been unified, more and more OEMs, battery companies, battery replacement operators, and scientific research institutions have realized the importance of formulating industry standards for battery replacement heavy trucks, and seized the opportunity by accelerating the layout.

On April 23, Jiangsu Province took the lead in passing the review of the group standard of “Technical Specifications for Battery Swap System for Pure Electric Heavy Duty Trucks in Jiangsu Province”, which will be an important milestone in the development of China’s battery swapping industry.

Combining with the current development of battery-changing heavy-duty trucks, it can be judged that China’s battery-changing heavy-duty truck industry is at a critical stage of transition from the initial stage to the growth stage.

With the continuous promotion of the national “dual carbon” strategy, the call for the introduction of “industry standards” for power-exchange heavy-duty trucks is getting louder and louder.It is foreseeable that in the future, the battery-changing heavy-duty truck market will usher in a trillion-level blue ocean, and related top-loading companies and trailer companies will also be poised to usher in new opportunities under the current industry downturn.

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Not only heavy truck power exchange, but also the rapid development of the electric two-wheeler power exchange market has attracted a large number of enterprises to deploy. Currently, the areas of shared electric vehicles and instant delivery are the main markets for the electric two-wheeler battery swap industry.

With the implementation of the new national standard for electric two-wheeled vehicles and the continuous development of lithium battery technology, the electric two-wheeled vehicle battery swap industry is expected to open up the C-end market in the future. Public data shows that China’s average daily two-wheeler trips exceed 1 billion, of which electric vehicles (including shared mopeds) average 700 million trips per day. The number of electric bicycles and motorcycles has reached 400 million units, and there are 46 million increments every year;

The number of instant delivery brothers has exceeded 16 million people, the average daily mileage is more than 110 kilometers, and the working hours are more than 10 hours. In front of them is the extreme desire for battery last life, so the battery swap mode came into being. According to forecasts, by 2025, the market size of the electric two-wheeled vehicle battery swap industry is expected to reach 32.85 billion RMB. If you are interested, you can check battery swapping station business model for more information on battery swapping.

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