Sodium battery cost-effective advantage to meet the opportunity
At present, the supply of lithium resources is facing a bottleneck, and the price of lithium is rising. Theoretically, the lithium-ion battery substitute with a cost advantage, the sodium-ion battery, has attracted the attention of all parties in the market. China’s leading power battery company CATL will complete the upstream industrial chain of sodium-ion batteries next year and start production.
Sodium ion batteries can be used in both electric vehicles and energy storage power stations. Recently, one of top 10 lithium ion battery manufacturers in China, CATL is working to promote the industrialization of sodium-ion batteries in 2023.At present, the development of sodium-ion batteries is still in the early stage, and has not yet entered into mass production and scene application. Experts say there is still uncertainty about the development prospects of sodium-ion batteries.
Listed companies layout in the field of sodium batteries
Sodium ion batteries have attracted much attention, mainly due to various factors such as rising prices of raw materials for lithium-ion batteries, rapid growth in demand for new energy vehicles, and continuous progress in sodium-ion battery technology. Two years ago, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was only 40,000 RMB / ton, but as of September 16, 2022, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen to 502,500 RMB / ton, an increase of 1156.25% in two years.
Judging from the sales of new energy vehicles, from January to August 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will be 3.97 million and 3.86 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year-on-year respectively. For the whole year of 2020, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.366 million and 1.367 million respectively.
At present, the pressure of rising prices of raw materials for lithium batteries is being transmitted layer by layer, not only terminal OEMs feel the pressure, but also battery manufacturers such as CATL. Relevant information shows that in the context of tight lithium resources, the strategic significance of sodium-ion batteries is prominent. Lithium vs sodium battery, sodium batteries have more stable electrochemical performance and lower cost.
Compared with lead-acid/all-vanadium flow batteries, sodium-ion batteries are more cost-effective. Relevant people said that in theory, sodium-ion batteries have more cost advantages than lithium-ion batteries, and their cost is 20% to 30% lower than the cheapest lithium iron phosphate batteries, because sodium-ion batteries do not use rare precious metals. From the perspective of cost material structure, the cost of cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries is the highest, at 43%. The cost of cathode materials for sodium-ion batteries only accounts for 26%.
As one of the earliest companies to enter the field of sodium batteries, as early as July 29, 2021, CATL released its first-generation sodium-ion battery, with a single cell energy density of 160Wh/kg. Charged for 15 minutes at room temperature, the power can reach 80%. In a low temperature environment of -20°C, it also has a discharge retention rate of more than 90%. In addition, CATL also proposed an application scheme for lithium-sodium mashup battery packs.
At the same time, ADAYO and HiNa laid out the sodium battery sector. NATRIUM, some of top 10 lithium marine battery manufacturers such as Great Power, Sunwoda and other companies have announced their layout in the field of sodium batteries. Industry insiders said that despite the obvious price advantage of sodium-ion batteries, large-scale commercialization depends on product performance.
The development of sodium ion industry needs policy support
The market is more concerned about the economy of sodium-ion batteries. Can this technical route work? At present, the cost of sodium-ion battery materials is 2.3 RMB/Wh). It is expected that under large-scale production, the long-term theoretical cost of sodium-ion batteries can be reduced to 0.3 RMB/Wh to 0.4 RMB/Wh.
The industrial chain of sodium-ion batteries has not been fully formed, and it has not been mass-produced. Various factors have led to the fact that the cost of sodium-ion batteries cannot be greatly reduced. At the current stage, the maturity of sodium-ion battery technology is much lower than that of lithium battery technology, and enterprises still need to actively invest in research and development. At the same time, this also means that sodium-ion batteries still have a lot of room for improvement and optimization.
Many listed companies cross-border layout of sodium-ion batteries
Data shows that as of September 16, there were 36 sodium-ion battery concept stocks in the Chinese stock market, most of which were listed companies from power equipment. In addition, listed companies in the fields of pharmaceutical biology, basic chemicals, media, machinery and equipment have also made cross-border layouts in the field of sodium-ion batteries.Transimage is mainly engaged in the design, R&D, manufacturing and sales of various input devices.
According to its introduction, as of August 31, Chuanyi Sodium Electricity is proceeding with construction and patent applications in an orderly manner according to the schedule. According to the plan, the 2GWh capacity of the first phase of this sodium-ion battery project is planned to complete the construction of the plant and the pilot line and the product pilot test by the end of 2022, and the 2GWh capacity will be put into production in early 2023.
With a production capacity of 8GWh in the second phase, the company will invest in equipment and production lines in a timely manner according to the follow-up sodium-ion battery market and other conditions, and steadily promote the gradual expansion and release of sodium battery production capacity. However, it is worth paying attention to whether there are blind investments and hot spots in this field.
Transimage issued a project risk warning stating that since the production line of the project has just been completed and is ready to be put into operation, the stability of operation needs to be further improved. The actual rate of return of the project is affected by the pace of future production capacity and market price factors, and the rate of return of the project is uncertain. Sodium batteries are a new technological product, and there are also uncertainties in the cultivation and development of the market.
Generally speaking, a technology needs to go through three stages of “small test”, “pilot test” and “mass production” from laboratory research and development to industrial production. The research and development of sodium-ion batteries requires the accumulation of underlying technologies, and also requires a long period of time for verification in the market.
The current attention of capital is conducive to the development of the sodium-ion battery industry chain, but in the future, product quality proof is needed. In the long run, only sodium-ion battery companies with real core competitiveness can survive in the fierce market competition.
